The Drone Waves: A Timeline

This appendix compiles open-source reporting on the unexplained drone and uncrewed-aircraft incidents that drove aerospace airspace anxiety from 2014 through early 2026, organized to show how scattered incursions hardened into two large, politically consequential "waves."

It runs in four movements. Precursors (2014–2024) establish that incursions over nuclear sites, airports, and military installations recurred on both sides of the Atlantic well before they drew sustained attention. The American Northeast ("NJ") wave of late 2024–early 2025, together with the concurrent military-installation reports beyond the Northeast, marks the pattern reaching critical mass in the United States. The European ("Denmark") wave of fall 2025, unfolding against the Russia–Ukraine war, shows a similar dynamic across NATO airspace under geopolitical pressure. A closing set of recurrences confirms the phenomenon receded rather than resolved.

Entries vary widely in evidentiary weight, from confirmed installation statements and recovered records to single-witness reports and official briefings later qualified or contradicted. Inclusion is not an endorsement of any one explanation, mundane or adversarial. Read against the four-failure analysis in Part III, that variance is the point: it shows how thin, conflicting signals were repeatedly forced into premature narratives, and where the detect-to-decide chain bent or broke.

Precursor incidents before the NJ and Denmark waves

United States

September 29–30, 2019: Palo Verde nuclear-plant incursions

Multiple UAVs were reported over the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. Site security could not identify markings on the aircraft or locate the operators, and plant officials coordinated with NRC personnel, local law enforcement, the FBI, DHS, and FAA; an FBI weapons-of-mass-destruction coordinator was also contacted, ending with an inconclusive investigation. [66]

December 2019–January 2020: Nebraska–Colorado mystery-drone wave

Credible witnesses, including law enforcement personnel, reported formations of sizable aerial devices (up to six-foot wingspans) across Nebraska and Colorado. The FAA launched an investigation, with records later indicating that officials could not determine the origin of the devices. They expressed "high confidence" that the devices were not covert military activity and noted no released evidence of federal criminal violations or military-installation incursions. [67], [68]

February 1–12, 2023: Chinese surveillance balloon and NORAD shootdowns

A Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon was publicly acknowledged over Montana on February 1, 2023; an F-22 downed it off the coast of South Carolina on February 4 after a week-long transit of the continental United States. NORAD then adjusted radar filter parameters and, over the following week, detected three additional unidentified objects, which were shot down over Deadhorse, Alaska (February 10), Yukon, Canada (February 11), and Lake Huron (February 12). Three of the four were never positively identified, and debris recovery was incomplete or impossible. The sequence prompted the cancellation of Secretary Blinken's planned Beijing visit and remains the highest primary-source-density U.S. air-defense intruder case of the period, a doctrinal precursor that made later airspace intruders more visible while leaving the detect-to-decide chain visibly fragile. [69]

December 2023: Langley Air Force Base precedent

CBS reported that drones appeared over Langley Air Force Base for 17 nights, with objects arriving after sunset and ranging from commercial quadcopters to larger craft. Retired Gen. Glen VanHerck described a response involving fighters, AWACS platforms, and helicopters, while emphasizing that homeland radar and legal authorities were poorly adapted to low-flying drone activity; some F-22s were reportedly relocated and later NORTHCOM reforms focused on more sensitive radar and deployable counter-drone kits. [70]

August 2–9, 2024: Plant 42 incursions

Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California, a major advanced aerospace-development hub, experienced a series of reported drone incursions. Temporary flight restrictions were later imposed on August 14 around the local airport, and FOIA-based reporting identified specific incursions between August 2 and August 9, raising concern because the facility supports highly sensitive military programs. [71], [72]

Europe

October–November 2014: French nuclear-site overflights

Unidentified drones were reported over multiple French nuclear facilities. France's Secretariat-General for National Defense and Security characterized the flights as an "organized provocation" geared towards "disrupting the chain of surveillance and protection at these sites," while the environment minister said officials did not have a lead on who was operating them. [73]

December 19–21, 2018: Gatwick Airport disruption

Drones reportedly shut down Gatwick, the United Kingdom's second-busiest airport, for roughly 36 hours. Gatwick CEO Stewart Wingate, in a December 20, 2018 statement, described the flights as "highly targeted" and "designed to … bring maximize disruption." At points, aircraft were left to circle the airport, running low on fuel. The military deployed an anti-drone system to the airport. [74]

January 2022: Swedish nuclear-plant sightings

Swedish authorities investigated drone reports at the Forsmark, Oskarshamn, and Ringhals nuclear plants, leading to police deployment of helicopters and additional national security investigations. The aircraft were described as capable of operating in high winds, and the episode occurred amid additional reports near government buildings. [75], [76]

May 14, 2023: Gatwick runway closure

Gatwick temporarily closed its runway for almost an hour after a suspected drone sighting near the airfield. Twelve incoming flights were diverted while the airport followed established procedures and investigated the report. [77]

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American Northeast "NJ" drone timeline: late 2024–early 2025

November 13, 2024: Picatinny Arsenal opening incidents

Picatinny Arsenal personnel begin to observe lights of unknown origin maneuvering above the military installation, which is close to residential areas. This made the early New Jersey wave more than a residential sighting cluster, because a sensitive military site was involved at the outset. [7]

Around November 18, 2024: Morris County reports multiply

Reports began multiplying around Morris County and northern New Jersey. Reuters reported that the FAA began receiving reports from Morris County around November 18, while federal officials investigated with state and local partners and cautioned that some sightings could involve manned aircraft or inaccurate reports. [78]

November 22, 2024: FAA restrictions begin

The FAA prohibited drone flights over Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster after unexplained drone activity, later extended on November 25 to Picatinny Arsenal, after reports of unexplained drone activity. [79]

November 26, 2024: Raritan Valley medevac disruption

A reported drone sighting near Raritan Valley Community College diverted a medevac helicopter from its planned landing zone; the patient was successfully transported via a secondary landing zone at Somerset Airport in Bedminster. Later reporting on federal documents suggested the case may have involved misidentified aircraft near Solberg Airport, making it important as an example of how even mistaken reports amid a drone wave can create real emergency-response consequences. [80]

December 3, 2024: FBI public tipline opens

FBI Newark, the New Jersey State Police, and the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness asked the public to report information related to recent possible drone sightings along the Raritan River. The FBI said reports from the public and law enforcement dated back several weeks and included clusters resembling drones and a possible fixed-wing aircraft. [81]

Commentary: Institutional resistance to outside expertise

Rolling Stone reported that Craig Robertson, a retired Army major and counter-UAS specialist, offered assistance to New Jersey State Police and the FBI; his attempts to push deeper went cold. The pattern illustrates a recurring theme: institutions with operational gaps declined external expertise rather than admitting the gap existed. (See Part III: Respond & Explain and [8].)

December 8, 2024: Morris County mayors escalate

Pequannock Mayor Ryan Herd circulated a letter to Governor Phil Murphy that was signed by 21 Morris County mayors within days. The letter said local efforts had been hindered by a lack of information and called the situation untenable. [82]

December 10, 2024: State emergency-operations briefing

News 12 reported that mayors left a New Jersey drone-sightings briefing frustrated, with Herd saying officials still did not know who was responsible or where the drones were coming from. Rolling Stone later reported Herd's recollection that roughly 185 mayors attended the Ewing briefing, which included senior representatives from the New Jersey State Police, FBI, DHS, and DoD. [8], [83]

December 10–11, 2024: Coast Guard vessel report

A Coast Guard Lieutenant told AP that "multiple low-altitude aircraft were observed near one of our vessels near Island Beach State Park." Middletown mayor Tony Perry claimed up to 40 drones were spotted, some at speeds of 60–70 mph. Rep. Chris Smith separately amplified claims that 12 to 30 drones followed a Coast Guard lifeboat. [84], [85]

December 11, 2024: Legislator briefing details circulate

Briefing notes and public reporting described drones as up to six feet wide, able to operate for six to seven hours, sometimes with lights off, and allegedly able to avoid ordinary detection. [84]

December 10–11, 2024: Adversary theories enter politics

Rep. Jeff Van Drew claimed that a trusted source told him an Iranian ship offshore was launching drones and called for them to be shot down. The Pentagon directly denied the claim, with Reuters reporting there was no Iranian drone mothership off the United States and no evidence the drones were coming from a foreign entity or adversary. [85]

December 12, 2024: DHS/FBI and White House say no known threat

DHS and the FBI issued a joint statement saying they had no evidence at the time that the reported sightings posed a national-security or public-safety threat or had a foreign nexus. They also said they were working to determine whether the reports involved drones, manned aircraft, or inaccurate sightings. White House spokesperson John Kirby made similar statements. [1], [78]

December 12–13, 2024: Drones reported near Salem/Hope Creek nuclear plant complex

Utility company PSE&G reported drone activity near the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear complex in Salem County and said it had contacted federal authorities. The utility asked the FAA to restrict airspace over the site, while Rep. Jeff Van Drew publicly cited reports of drones near the facility and called for stronger federal action. [86]

December 13, 2024: Naval Weapons Station Earle confirms entries

Naval Weapons Station Earle in Colts Neck, NJ confirmed multiple instances of unidentified drones entering its airspace. The base said no direct threat had been identified. [87]

December 13–14, 2024: Stewart Airport runway closure

New York Governor Kathy Hochul stated that the runways at Stewart Airfield were shut down for approximately one hour because of drone activity. Rep. Pat Ryan said the UAS got within 25–50 feet of a C-17 military transport plane. [88], [89]

December 14–15, 2024: Boston Logan-area arrests

Boston police arrested two men after a hazardous drone operation near Logan Airport airspace from Long Island in Boston Harbor. The case appears to be an ordinary illegal-drone enforcement matter rather than an unexplained base incursion, occurring during the broader Northeast wave. [90]

December 14–16, 2024: Federal detection finds little wrongdoing

AP reported that drone detectors deployed in New Jersey found little or no evidence of wrongdoing. Governor Murphy said only a limited number of suspected sightings had been reported over the weekend, while federal officials continued saying they had no indication of foreign involvement or harmful intent. [91]

Mid-December 2024: Lasers and firearms become hazards

The FAA warned of a spike in people pointing lasers at aircraft during the wave, while the FBI warned the public not to shoot at suspected drones. [92]

December 15, 2024: Schumer seeks drone-detection tools

Sen. Chuck Schumer urged DHS to deploy state-of-the-art drone-detection technology across New York and New Jersey. He also said he would co-sponsor legislation giving local authorities more drone-detection tools. [93]

December 16–17, 2024: Multi-agency statement quantifies public tips

DHS, FBI, FAA, and DoD said the FBI had received more than 5,000 tips, generating roughly 100 leads. The agencies assessed the reports as a mix of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, law-enforcement drones, manned aircraft, helicopters, and stars, while saying unauthorized activity over restricted military airspace was being taken seriously. [94]

December 15–16, 2024: Mayorkas calls for expanded authorities

DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said there was no known foreign involvement in the mass drone sightings. At the same time, he called for Congress to expand federal counter-drone authorities. [95]

December 17, 2024: Biden says no sense of danger

President Biden said federal officials were following the sightings closely but had no sense of danger. Mayorkas separately said the federal government had deployed additional personnel, resources, and technology to assist New Jersey State Police. [96]

Mid-December 2024: Missing-radioactive-material theory denied

The NRC event report stated that a Ge-68 pin source lost in transit on December 2 had been found, returned to the supplier, and closed as an incident involving material less than Category 3. NJDEP and federal officials later said the theory that drones were tracking missing radioactive material was false and that drones were not used to search for it. [97], [98]

December 18–19, 2024: FAA expands critical-infrastructure restrictions

The FAA imposed temporary 30-day drone restrictions over 22 critical-infrastructure locations in New Jersey after requests from federal security agencies. The affected areas included Jersey City, Elizabeth, and Camden, while New York also moved to restrict drone flights over critical-infrastructure sites. [92]

December 19, 2024: Counter-UAS authority becomes flashpoint

AP reported that federal authority to track and disable threatening drones was becoming entangled in budget negotiations and nearing expiration. [99]

Mid-late January 2025: Temporary FAA restrictions expire

The December FAA restrictions were generally framed as one-month measures extending into mid-January. Their expiration marked the administrative wind-down of many emergency restrictions imposed during the height of the New Jersey wave.

January 28, 2025: White House closure statement

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the drones seen over New Jersey had been authorized by the FAA for research and other purposes and that many also involved hobbyist or recreational activity. No further explanation has emerged since. [100]

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Concurrent military reports beyond the U.S. Northeast

November 20–26, 2024: U.S. bases in the United Kingdom

The US Air Force said small UAS continued to be spotted near and over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, RAF Feltwell, and RAF Fairford beginning November 20, with fluctuating numbers and varied sizes and configurations. Reuters reported a U.S. official saying the drones did not appear to be hobbyist activity and seemed coordinated, while parliamentary proceedings reflected local public concern about aircraft being scrambled at night; a later written answer said the incidents remained under active investigation as of June 2025. [101], [102], [103], [104]

November 30, 2024: Vandenberg Space Force Base overflight and later arrest

DOJ announced that a 39-year-old Chinese citizen and U.S. lawful permanent resident, was arrested at San Francisco International Airport en route to China for allegedly flying a drone over and photographing Vandenberg Space Force Base. [105]

December 3–4, 2024: Ramstein Air Base sightings

Unidentified drones were spotted over Ramstein Air Base in Germany in early December, with confirmation from a U.S. Air Force spokesperson. [106]

December 9–15, 2024: Camp Pendleton incursions

Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton confirmed six instances of unmanned aerial systems entering its airspace. The base said there was no threat to installation operations. [107]

December 13–17, 2024: Wright-Patterson airspace closures

Drones around Wright-Patterson Air Force Base forced officials to close base airspace for roughly four hours on December 13–14. The base later reported additional small UAS overnight on December 16–17, with fluctuating numbers and varied sizes but no effect on residents, facilities, or assets. [108], [109]

December 2024: Hill Air Force Base sightings

Hill AFB confirmed that unmanned aerial systems had been spotted near the base in Davis County, Utah. Officials said they were monitoring the area and working with local authorities. [110]

December 17–19, 2024: Fort Worth-area suspicious activity

White Settlement police reported suspicious drone activity near military and federal sites, including areas near Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, a Lockheed Martin facility, and a Texas Army National Guard recruitment center. Police coordinated with security personnel and later worked with the FBI, NCIS, and the Air Force. [111]

December 2024–January 2025: Bavarian military-base sightings

Bavaria's State Office of Criminal Investigation investigated suspected Russian espionage after drones were spotted over several Bavarian military installations, including the Manching facility and a military site at Neuburg an der Donau. The Manching base had sightings on multiple days in December, with another incident reported in January. [112]

Commentary: Scale context from NORAD testimony

In February 2025 Senate Armed Services testimony, Gen. Gregory Guillot stated that there were 350 UAS detections over 100 different U.S. military installations in 2024. The testimony placed the late-2024 cases into a broader military-installation security problem. [113]

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European "Denmark" drone wave timeline

Denmark wave: September–November 2025

September 22–23, 2025: Copenhagen and Oslo airport closures

Two or three large drones were reported near Copenhagen Airport, closing it for nearly four hours, while Oslo Airport also shut its airspace for about three hours after a drone observation. Danish police reportedly described the Copenhagen drones as likely operated by a capable operator based on size, number, flight pattern, and behavior; Norway later ended the Oslo probe for lack of evidence. [114], [115]

September 24–27, 2025: Danish airports and military sites

Drones were reported at Kastrup Air Base, as well as airports with military roles Aalborg, Esbjerg, Sønderborg, Skrydstrup, and Billund. This caused disruptions, diversions, and additional closures. Denmark told NATO allies unspecified state actors were responsible even as Danish officials publicly said attribution remained unclear; Danish Defence confirmed drones at several facilities and said several capabilities were deployed. Danish emergency response moved to operational readiness after additional suspicious activity and police received more than 500 drone-related reports nationally in 24 hours. [116], [117], [118]

September 25–October 1, 2025: Northern Germany critical-infrastructure reports

German authorities investigated unidentified drones over critical infrastructure in Schleswig-Holstein, including a power plant, a university hospital, a shipyard and defense-industrial area in Kiel, and a military base in Sanitz in a nearby state. [119]

September 27, 2025: Amsterdam airport runway closure

Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport closed a runway for 45 minutes after a sighting of a suspected drone. [120]

September 27–28, 2025: Denmark bans civilian drone flights

Denmark ordered a week-long ban on civil drone flights after fresh sightings at military facilities. The Danish military said it had deployed several capacities in response to overnight sightings, while declining to describe the response in detail. [121]

September 27–28, 2025: Norwegian airbase and airport reports

Norwegian police investigated possible drone sightings near Ørland air base, Norway's main F-35 base, after guards reported several observations outside the perimeter. Additional reporting described flight disruptions linked to drone reports near Bardufoss and Brønnøysund airports. [122], [123], [124]

September 28, 2025: Finland hydroelectric-plant report

A passerby reported an unidentified drone over the Valajaskosken hydroelectric power plant in Rovaniemi, Finland. Regional law enforcement confirmed the report but withheld details because of investigative measures. The incident happened recently after Finnish power plants became no-fly zones. [124], [125]

October 2–4, 2025: Munich Airport and Erding base disruption

Munich Airport operations were affected two nights in a row after drone sightings, canceling and diverting flights affecting thousands of passengers. Germany's defence ministry confirmed media reports that drones were spotted over a nearby ammunition depot and the Erding military base. [126]

October 8, 2025: Germany broadens police powers

Germany moved to give police broader authority to shoot down drones. [127]

October 2025: Belgian military-base sightings

Belgium opened an investigation after drone sightings over military bases including Marche-en-Famenne and Elsenborn. Defence Minister Theo Francken said the incidents were not the work of amateurs but of skilled drone pilots. [128]

October 31–November 2, 2025: Berlin and Bremen airport suspensions

Berlin Brandenburg Airport suspended flights for nearly two hours after a late-evening drone sighting, and police confirmed a witness report but did not find the drone. Bremen Airport also temporarily suspended takeoffs and landings after a drone was spotted nearby, with at least one flight diverted and another delayed. [129], [130], [131]

November 1–9, 2025: Belgian airports, bases, and nuclear plant

Unidentified drones were reported over Kleine Brogel Air Base, host to U.S. B61 tactical nuclear weapons under NATO nuclear-sharing, for three consecutive nights, and Defence Minister Theo Francken called the activity a deliberate spy operation: "small drones probing radio frequencies, then larger drones to destabilize," not amateur activity. Chief of Defence Admiral Frederik Vansina ordered the military to shoot down unidentified drones over Belgian military bases. Brussels and Liège airports were repeatedly shut down after drone sightings, with more than 50 Brussels flights canceled on November 4 and roughly 500 passengers spending the night in the terminal; five drones were later reported circling the Doel nuclear power plant for about an hour. Belgium subsequently brought in allied armed forces to help track or seize drones around airports, military bases, and the nuclear plant. Later reporting suggested an incursion over the port of Antwerp. [132], [133], [134], [135], [136]

November 6, 2025: Sweden's Gothenburg airport disruption

One or more drones were observed at Gothenburg-Landvetter Airport on Sweden's west coast, forcing more than a dozen flights to be rerouted or canceled. Swedish police opened an investigation into "suspected aviation sabotage." [137]

November 21–22, 2025: Dutch military fires on drones

The Dutch military used ground weapons against drones spotted above Volkel air base in the southeastern Netherlands, but the drones left and were not recovered. Eindhoven Airport, which serves both civilian and military functions, suspended air traffic for several hours because of multiple drone sightings, and the Netherlands later moved to buy drone-detection radars. [138], [139], [140]

Mid-November–early December 2025: French military-installation overflights

From November 10–12, incursions over Eurenco munitions facility in Bergerac, and a separate incursion over a train in Mulhouse carrying tanks, led to a mobilization of the French national police. From November 26–30, suspected drones appeared at Base Aerienne de Creil, including up to six hostile drones over three nights at a base housing military intelligence and satellite-monitoring functions. In early December, several unidentified drones were reported to fly over France's Ile Longue strategic nuclear-submarine base, where technical means detected them and marines deployed countermeasures, public prosecutor Frédéric Teillet later clarified that the response involved a jammer, not firearm fire. Additional incursions were previously reported nearby on the Crozon peninsula in November. [141], [142], [143], [144]

Context alongside the Russia–Ukraine war

January 2025: NATO launches Baltic Sentry

NATO launched Baltic Sentry to protect undersea cables, telecom links, and pipelines in the Baltic Sea after incidents involving damaged seabed infrastructure. The mission would involve frigates, patrol aircraft, naval drones, better surveillance, and closer private-sector coordination. [145]

September 10–12, 2025: Russian drones enter Polish airspace

Poland shot down Russian drones that violated its airspace during Russia's war against Ukraine, an action Reuters described as the first known case of its kind by a NATO member during the war. NATO then launched Eastern Sentry to reinforce the eastern flank after Russian drones violated Polish airspace. [146]

September 13, 2025: Romanian airspace Shahed incursion

Romania became the second NATO state penetrated in the September 2025 wave when a Russian Geran-2 (Shahed-136) drone violated its airspace from Ukrainian territory. Romanian Air Force F-16s tracked the drone for roughly 50 minutes; the pilots had authorization to engage but withheld fire because of the risk to populated areas on the ground. The Romanian Ministry of National Defence issued a same-day statement confirming the incursion and the engagement decision. [147]

September 19–23, 2025: Russian jets violate Estonian airspace

Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for around 12 minutes; Russia denied the claim. NATO said allied aircraft intercepted and escorted the jets out, prompting Estonia to request Article 4 consultations. [148]

October 1, 2025: EU leaders back a "drone wall"

In the middle of the drone wave, EU leaders backed creation of a drone wall as a countermeasure against Russia. [149]

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Selected post-wave recurrence incidents

March 2026: Barksdale Air Force Base recurrence

Air Force Global Strike Command stated that Barksdale AFB experienced several unauthorized drone incursions beginning March 9, 2026, with varying duration and numbers of drones. The base issued and then lifted a temporary shelter-in-place order, continued operations, and said a federal investigation remained active. [11]

March 11, 2026: Berlin airport suspension

Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER) briefly suspended takeoffs and landings after an unknown object was reported near a Bundeswehr (German military) helicopter hangar. Operations were paused for roughly half an hour as a safety precaution. [150]

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The full incident record, with sources, lives in the Confronting Unknowns working paper.